More Online Programs Do Not Always Mean More Degrees
Across 20 large bachelor’s field families, online-program growth and award growth often moved in different directions.
Which bachelor’s program-distance periods are comparable, and how should all, fully online, and partially online program counts be interpreted?
The report uses revised 2020–21 and 2023–24 collection cycles. Fully and partially online counts are classifications within the source-reported all-program total, not extra programs to add on top. Published zeroes remain zero, unavailable values remain unavailable, and absent records remain separate.
How did reported bachelor’s programs and fully online programs change across the largest field families?
Across observed detailed fields, all reported programs rose from 161,234 to 162,942, fully online programs rose from 10,730 to 11,518, and partially online programs rose from 6,300 to 10,514. The selected frame contains the 20 largest latest field families with complete endpoints and a positive online baseline.
How did first-major bachelor’s awards change in the same fields and periods?
Awards moved very differently by field. Computing and Psychology grew, while Business, Engineering, Physical Sciences, English, Communication, and several humanities and social-science families declined. Two matched endpoints support point-to-point change, not a trend.
Which field, state, and sector counterexamples challenge a simple more-online-means-more-degrees story?
Engineering and Physical Sciences expanded fully online programs while awards declined. Psychology reduced online programs while awards grew. Similar online shares in Business and Computing accompanied opposite award directions. State and sector comparisons also moved differently, and college location is not student residence.
What does the combined program and award evidence establish, and where are its boundaries?
Online expansion and bachelor’s awards often moved apart
Across 20 large field families, more fully online bachelor’s programs did not reliably coincide with more first-major bachelor’s awards. Engineering and Physical Sciences increased their fully online program counts by 50.0% and 62.5%, respectively, while awards declined. Psychology moved in the opposite direction: fully online programs fell 3.8% while awards rose 10.5%. Computing grew on both measures.
The comparison is descriptive. Annual awards are not enrollment, and the records do not establish that online delivery caused award growth or decline.
Both measures use matched, revised endpoints
The analysis compares the 2020–21 and 2023–24 IPEDS collection cycles. Those cycles cover programs and awards during July 2019–June 2020 and July 2022–June 2023. Both endpoints use revised releases, which avoids mixing a revised starting point with a later provisional endpoint.
Two endpoints establish point-to-point change, not a trend.
Source-reported program totals are not row counts
For each college, detailed field, bachelor’s level, and collection cycle, the source publishes three classifications:
- all reported programs;
- programs where every program in the field cell can be completed fully online; and
- programs where some programs in the field cell can be completed fully online.
The fully and partially online measures are classifications within the all-program total. Adding them to the all-program total would double-count. The audit also confirmed that the sums are source-reported program counts rather than counts of records.
Across all observed detailed bachelor’s fields, reported programs rose from 161,234 to 162,942. Fully online programs rose from 10,730 to 11,518, and partially online programs rose from 6,300 to 10,514.
The 20-field frame uses a transparent selection rule
The chart includes the 20 largest CIP 2020 two-digit field families by reported bachelor’s programs in 2023–24. Each family needed observed program and award values at both endpoints and a positive fully online starting value so percentage change could be calculated. The rule does not select fields based on whether awards rose or fell.
| Field family | Latest reported programs | Fully online program change | Bachelor’s award change | Descriptive pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services | 17,992 | 3.7% | -5.9% | Other observed pattern |
| Education | 16,798 | 38.6% | 2.3% | Large online growth; weak or declining awards |
| Visual and Performing Arts | 15,932 | 5.7% | -2.6% | Other observed pattern |
| Health Professions and Related Programs | 11,706 | 1.8% | -2.8% | Other observed pattern |
| Social Sciences | 10,260 | -1.3% | -9.7% | Other observed pattern |
| Biological and Biomedical Sciences | 7,528 | 52.2% | 2.9% | Large online growth; weak or declining awards |
| Foreign Languages, Literatures, and Linguistics | 6,690 | -10.5% | -20.8% | Other observed pattern |
| Engineering | 6,408 | 50.0% | -7.0% | Large online growth; weak or declining awards |
| Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services | 6,204 | 14.5% | 17.2% | Other observed pattern |
| Physical Sciences | 6,140 | 62.5% | -12.1% | Large online growth; weak or declining awards |
| Communication, Journalism, and Related Programs | 5,968 | 17.8% | -14.5% | Other observed pattern |
| Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies | 5,694 | 22.4% | -4.2% | Large online growth; weak or declining awards |
| English Language and Literature/Letters | 3,928 | 16.1% | -17.3% | Other observed pattern |
| Area, Ethnic, Cultural, Gender, and Group Studies | 3,800 | 0.0% | -21.3% | Other observed pattern |
| Psychology | 3,748 | -3.8% | 10.5% | Strong award growth; little online expansion |
| Mathematics and Statistics | 3,620 | 26.3% | -7.3% | Large online growth; weak or declining awards |
| Parks, Recreation, Leisure, Fitness, and Kinesiology | 3,588 | 21.7% | -4.5% | Large online growth; weak or declining awards |
| Philosophy and Religious Studies | 3,384 | 6.0% | -8.7% | Other observed pattern |
| Homeland Security, Law Enforcement, Firefighting, and Related Protective Services | 3,042 | 1.8% | -5.3% | Other observed pattern |
| Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities | 2,908 | 2.1% | -14.2% | Other observed pattern |
CIP family 48 had a reported zero fully online baseline, so its percentage change is undefined and it is not plotted. Other families with complete endpoints fell below the top-20 program-size cutoff. Neither condition is treated as zero awards or missing data.
Large online gains often coexisted with weak awards
Seven selected families met a transparent counterexample rule: at least 20% fully online program growth with no more than 5% award growth.
- Education: online programs +38.6%; awards +2.3%.
- Biological and Biomedical Sciences: +52.2%; awards +2.9%.
- Engineering: +50.0%; awards −7.0%.
- Physical Sciences: +62.5%; awards −12.1%.
- Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies: +22.4%; awards −4.2%.
- Mathematics and Statistics: +26.3%; awards −7.3%.
- Parks, Recreation, Leisure, Fitness, and Kinesiology: +21.7%; awards −4.5%.
Computing does not fit that counterexample: fully online programs rose 14.5% and awards rose 17.2%.
Similar online shares can accompany opposite award paths
Business had a 16.3% fully online share in 2023–24 and a 5.9% award decline. Computing had a similar 15.2% fully online share and a 17.2% award increase. Online share alone does not describe the direction of award change.
Psychology provides the reverse counterexample. Its fully online program count fell from 422 to 406, while awards rose from 121,278 to 134,039.
State and sector results complicate the national picture
State results describe the reporting college’s location, not students’ residences or the location of online learners.
- Vermont’s fully online count rose 127.3% while bachelor’s awards fell 7.6%.
- Nevada’s online count doubled while awards rose 4.0%.
- Arkansas reported 74.2% online growth and a 5.3% award decline.
- Texas reported 60.5% online growth and a 0.5% award decline.
- Minnesota reported 64.3% online growth and 3.7% award growth.
At public four-year colleges, fully online programs rose 19.6% while awards fell 3.9%. At private nonprofit four-year colleges, fully online programs fell 0.6% and awards fell 4.1%. At private for-profit four-year colleges, fully online programs rose 4.5% and awards rose 2.1%. Sector classifications come from each college’s contemporaneous IPEDS record; the groups do not imply comparable student populations.
What the comparison can and cannot establish
| Evidence | Population and period | What it supports | What it does not support |
|---|---|---|---|
| Program availability | Reported bachelor’s field cells, 2020–21 and 2023–24 revised releases | Point-to-point change in reported all, fully online, and partially online programs | Current catalog availability, enrollment, or student demand |
| Bachelor’s awards | First-major awards in the same field families and collection cycles | Point-to-point change in reported degree output | Study mode, student residence, or graduate placement |
| State and sector comparisons | Colleges with observed endpoints | Differences by college location and contemporaneous sector | Causal effects of online delivery |
Broader online availability and degree production answer different questions. Planning decisions should use both measures without treating either as a substitute for the other.
Online-program growth and bachelor’s awards often moved apart, 2020–21 to 2023–24
Matched revised IPEDS endpoints for 20 large bachelor’s field families.
| Field Family | Change in fully online reported bachelor’s programs, 2020–21 to 2023–24 | Change in first-major bachelor’s awards, 2020–21 to 2023–24 | Reported bachelor’s programs, 2023–24 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services | 3.7% | -5.9% | 17,992 |
| Education | 38.6% | 2.3% | 16,798 |
| Visual and Performing Arts | 5.7% | -2.6% | 15,932 |
| Health Professions and Related Programs | 1.8% | -2.8% | 11,706 |
| Social Sciences | -1.3% | -9.7% | 10,260 |
| Biological and Biomedical Sciences | 52.2% | 2.9% | 7,528 |
| Foreign Languages, Literatures, and Linguistics | -10.5% | -20.8% | 6,690 |
| Engineering | 50% | -7% | 6,408 |
| Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services | 14.5% | 17.2% | 6,204 |
| Physical Sciences | 62.5% | -12.1% | 6,140 |
| Communication, Journalism, and Related Programs | 17.8% | -14.5% | 5,968 |
| Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies | 22.4% | -4.2% | 5,694 |
| English Language and Literature/Letters | 16.1% | -17.3% | 3,928 |
| Area, Ethnic, Cultural, Gender, and Group Studies | 0% | -21.3% | 3,800 |
| Psychology | -3.8% | 10.5% | 3,748 |
| Mathematics and Statistics | 26.3% | -7.3% | 3,620 |
| Parks, Recreation, Leisure, Fitness, and Kinesiology | 21.7% | -4.5% | 3,588 |
| Philosophy and Religious Studies | 6% | -8.7% | 3,384 |
| Homeland Security, Law Enforcement, Firefighting, and Related Protective Services | 1.8% | -5.3% | 3,042 |
| Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities | 2.1% | -14.2% | 2,908 |